STL
54%
@
April 17, 2026
HOU
46%
ML
STL ML (+119) — 54% win, +7.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
STL
Kyle Leahy
vs
HOU
Peter Lambert
Win Probability
| Source | STL | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Simulation only | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| Elo ratings | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| Market (implied) | 44.2% | 55.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
STL avg runs
4.3
HOU avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = STL wins, Positive = HOU wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 6.8% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| HOU | 4.8% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Jordan Walker
- Nolan Gorman
- Masyn Winn
- Nathan Church
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
HOU
- Jose Altuve
- Yordan Alvarez
- Isaac Paredes
- Carlos Correa
- Christian Walker
- Joey Loperfido
- Cam Smith
- Taylor Trammell
- Yainer Diaz
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
STL: 1543
HOU: 1395
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | STL | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +118 | -138 |
| Bovada | +114 | -136 |
| BetMGM | +118 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |
Model Analysis
STL is getting plus-money at +119 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Kyle Leahy keeps STL competitive on the mound against Peter Lambert. STL holds a commanding 148-point Elo edge.