TBR
51%
@
April 17, 2026
PIT
49%
Pitching Matchup
TBR
Nick Martinez
vs
PIT
Bubba Chandler
Win Probability
| Source | TBR | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| Simulation only | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| Elo ratings | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| Market (implied) | 44.6% | 55.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TBR avg runs
4.8
PIT avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TBR wins, Positive = PIT wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | 5.3% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| PIT | 5.1% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 14.5% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TBR
- Chandler Simpson
- Junior Caminero
- Jonathan Aranda
- Yandy Díaz
- Jake Fraley
- Cedric Mullins
- Richie Palacios
- Nick Fortes
- Taylor Walls
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Marcell Ozuna
- Nick Gonzales
- Spencer Horwitz
- Konnor Griffin
- Henry Davis
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.83
BB: 1.0
K: 0.92
Weather
Forecast
76°F
Wind: 4 mph in
Elo Ratings
TBR: 1543
PIT: 1481
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TBR | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -136 |
| Bovada | +113 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |