ATL
56%
@
April 18, 2026
PHI
44%
ML
ATL ML (+110) — 56% win, +6.9% edge
Pitching Matchup
ATL
Chris Sale
vs
PHI
Cristopher Sanchez
Win Probability
| Source | ATL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| Simulation only | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| Elo ratings | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| Market (implied) | 46.3% | 53.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ATL avg runs
5.0
PHI avg runs
5.2
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ATL wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 4.6% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% |
| PHI | 4.0% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Ozzie Albies
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Mauricio Dubón
- Michael Harris II
- Jonah Heim
- Jorge Mateo
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Adolis García
- Edmundo Sosa
- J.T. Realmuto
- Alec Bohm
- Brandon Marsh
- Otto Kemp
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.17
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
61°F
Wind: 11 mph in
Elo Ratings
ATL: 1597
PHI: 1443
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ATL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +108 | -126 |
| Bovada | +103 | -123 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |
Model Analysis
ATL is getting plus-money at +110 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Chris Sale keeps ATL competitive on the mound against Cristopher Sanchez. Hitter-friendly yard boosts power.