CIN
45%
@
April 18, 2026
MIN
55%
Pitching Matchup
CIN
Andrew Abbott
vs
MIN
Taj Bradley
Win Probability
| Source | CIN | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| Simulation only | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| Elo ratings | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Market (implied) | 45.0% | 55.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CIN avg runs
4.4
MIN avg runs
4.5
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CIN wins, Positive = MIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 6.4% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| MIN | 6.0% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Rece Hinds
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
- P.J. Higgins
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Austin Martin
- Luke Keaschall
- Ryan Jeffers
- Josh Bell
- Victor Caratini
- Matt Wallner
- Brooks Lee
- Ryan Kreidler
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.07
HR: 0.94
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
44°F
Wind: 17 mph cross
Elo Ratings
CIN: 1496
MIN: 1511
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CIN | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +112 | -132 |
| Bovada | +113 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |