NYM
34%
@
April 18, 2026
CHC
66%
ML
CHC ML (-106) — 66% win, +9.9% edge
Pitching Matchup
NYM
Freddy Peralta
vs
CHC
Jameson Taillon
Win Probability
| Source | NYM | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 33.8% | 66.2% |
| Simulation only | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| Elo ratings | 25.9% | 74.1% |
| Market (implied) | 50.2% | 49.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYM avg runs
4.0
CHC avg runs
4.4
Avg total
8.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYM wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 7.8% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% |
| CHC | 5.6% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYM
- Carson Benge
- Bo Bichette
- Francisco Lindor
- Luis Robert Jr.
- MJ Melendez
- Marcus Semien
- Brett Baty
- Luis Torrens
- Tommy Pham
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Seiya Suzuki
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Dansby Swanson
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Miguel Amaya
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
41°F
Wind: 15 mph cross
Elo Ratings
NYM: 1377
CHC: 1536
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYM | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -110 | -106 |
| Bovada | -108 | -112 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |
Model Analysis
CHC is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Jameson Taillon toes the rubber against Freddy Peralta. Cold temps suppress the bats.