SDP
53%
@
April 18, 2026
LAA
47%
Pitching Matchup
SDP
German Marquez
vs
LAA
Yusei Kikuchi
Win Probability
| Source | SDP | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Simulation only | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Elo ratings | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Market (implied) | 49.9% | 50.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SDP avg runs
5.3
LAA avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SDP wins, Positive = LAA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDP | 3.6% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% |
| LAA | 5.2% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SDP
- Ramón Laureano
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Jackson Merrill
- Manny Machado
- Xander Bogaerts
- Nick Castellanos
- Miguel Andujar
- Bryce Johnson
- Luis Campusano
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jo Adell
- Yoán Moncada
- Oswald Peraza
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Adam Frazier
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.08
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
80°F
Wind: 10 mph in
Elo Ratings
SDP: 1568
LAA: 1529
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SDP | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -108 | -108 |
| Bovada | -107 | -113 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -110 | -110 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |