STL
56%
@
April 18, 2026
HOU
44%
ML
STL ML (+124) — 56% win, +8.7% edge
Pitching Matchup
STL
Andre Pallante
vs
HOU
Lance McCullers
Win Probability
| Source | STL | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| Simulation only | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| Elo ratings | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| Market (implied) | 43.1% | 56.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
STL avg runs
4.3
HOU avg runs
4.6
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = STL wins, Positive = HOU wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 6.9% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
| HOU | 5.2% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Jordan Walker
- Nolan Gorman
- Masyn Winn
- Nathan Church
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
HOU
- Jose Altuve
- Yordan Alvarez
- Isaac Paredes
- Christian Walker
- Carlos Correa
- Joey Loperfido
- Cam Smith
- Taylor Trammell
- Yainer Diaz
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
STL: 1556
HOU: 1383
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | STL | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +124 | -146 |
| Bovada | +121 | -144 |
| BetMGM | +118 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |
Model Analysis
STL is getting plus-money at +124 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Andre Pallante keeps STL competitive on the mound against Lance McCullers. STL holds a commanding 173-point Elo edge.