TBR
48%
@
April 18, 2026
PIT
52%
ML
TBR ML (+146) — 48% win, +7.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
TBR
Drew Rasmussen
vs
PIT
Paul Skenes
Win Probability
| Source | TBR | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Simulation only | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Elo ratings | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Market (implied) | 39.5% | 60.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TBR avg runs
4.9
PIT avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TBR wins, Positive = PIT wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | 5.6% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| PIT | 4.9% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TBR
- Chandler Simpson
- Junior Caminero
- Jonathan Aranda
- Yandy Díaz
- Jake Fraley
- Cedric Mullins
- Richie Palacios
- Taylor Walls
- Hunter Feduccia
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Marcell Ozuna
- Nick Gonzales
- Spencer Horwitz
- Konnor Griffin
- Joey Bart
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.81
BB: 1.0
K: 0.92
Weather
Forecast
68°F
Wind: 14 mph out
Elo Ratings
TBR: 1521
PIT: 1503
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TBR | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +146 | -174 |
| Bovada | +146 | -178 |
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +139 | -168 |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 |
Model Analysis
The market has TBR as a +146 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Drew Rasmussen keeps TBR competitive on the mound against Paul Skenes. Wind blowing out — balls are carrying.