TOR
39%
@
April 18, 2026
ARI
61%
ML
ARI ML (-120) — 61% win, +6.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
TOR
Max Scherzer
vs
ARI
Zac Gallen
Win Probability
| Source | TOR | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| Simulation only | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| Elo ratings | 30.9% | 69.0% |
| Market (implied) | 46.6% | 53.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TOR avg runs
4.5
ARI avg runs
4.3
Avg total
8.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TOR wins, Positive = ARI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 6.2% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| ARI | 6.2% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TOR
- Davis Schneider
- Nathan Lukes
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Jesús Sánchez
- Lenyn Sosa
- Andrés Giménez
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Ernie Clement
- Brandon Valenzuela
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- 666971
- Adrian Del Castillo
- Jose Fernandez
- Ildemaro Vargas
- Nolan Arenado
- Alek Thomas
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.8
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
TOR: 1466
ARI: 1582
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TOR | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +102 | -120 |
| Bovada | +103 | -123 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |
Model Analysis
ARI is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Zac Gallen toes the rubber against Max Scherzer. Pitcher's park suppresses the long ball.