BAL
46%
@
April 18, 2026
CLE
54%
Pitching Matchup
BAL
Dean Kremer
vs
CLE
Gavin Williams
Win Probability
| Source | BAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Simulation only | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Elo ratings | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| Market (implied) | 44.5% | 55.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BAL avg runs
4.3
CLE avg runs
4.0
Avg total
8.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BAL wins, Positive = CLE wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 6.9% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| CLE | 7.4% | 11.9% | 14.4% | 14.7% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BAL
- Gunnar Henderson
- Taylor Ward
- Pete Alonso
- Dylan Beavers
- Samuel Basallo
- Leody Taveras
- Colton Cowser
- Coby Mayo
- Jeremiah Jackson
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- George Valera
- Angel Martínez
- Bo Naylor
- Juan Brito
- Brayan Rocchio
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.88
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
48°F
Wind: 14 mph cross
Elo Ratings
BAL: 1504
CLE: 1528
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +112 | -132 |
| Bovada | +115 | -138 |
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |