CWS
35%
@
April 18, 2026
Athletics
65%
Pitching Matchup
CWS
Erick Fedde
vs
Athletics
Luis Severino
Win Probability
| Source | CWS | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 35.1% | 64.9% |
| Simulation only | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| Elo ratings | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| Market (implied) | 40.6% | 59.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CWS avg runs
4.4
Athletics avg runs
4.9
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CWS wins, Positive = Athletics wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 6.6% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Athletics | 4.3% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Munetaka Murakami
- Miguel Vargas
- Colson Montgomery
- Andrew Benintendi
- Dustin Harris
- Edgar Quero
- Reese McGuire
- Luisangel Acuña
Athletics
- Jeff McNeil
- Shea Langeliers
- Nick Kurtz
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Jacob Wilson
- Carlos Cortes
- Max Muncy
- Lawrence Butler
- Denzel Clarke
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Elo Ratings
CWS: 1397
Athletics: 1516
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CWS | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +132 | -156 |
| Bovada | +138 | -164 |
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 |