DET
46%
@
April 18, 2026
BOS
54%
RL
BOS +1.5 (-111) — 65% win, +8.0% edge
Pitching Matchup
DET
Tarik Skubal
vs
BOS
Brayan Bello
Win Probability
| Source | DET | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Simulation only | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Elo ratings | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Market (implied) | 61.4% | 38.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
DET avg runs
4.7
BOS avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = DET wins, Positive = BOS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 5.9% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| BOS | 5.1% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
DET
- Kevin McGonigle
- Gleyber Torres
- Colt Keith
- Riley Greene
- Spencer Torkelson
- Kerry Carpenter
- Javier Báez
- Wenceel Pérez
- Jake Rogers
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Trevor Story
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Andruw Monasterio
- Caleb Durbin
- Carlos Narváez
- Ceddanne Rafaela
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.81
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
44°F
Wind: 8 mph cross
Elo Ratings
DET: 1537
BOS: 1531
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | DET | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -184 | +154 |
| Bovada | -168 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -170 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -175 | +144 |
| Caesars | -170 | +143 |
Model Analysis
BOS is getting +1.5 at -111. The sim gives them a 65% chance of covering — 8.0% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.