SFG
43%
@
April 18, 2026
WSN
57%
ML
WSN ML (-102) — 57% win, +6.1% edge
Pitching Matchup
SFG
Adrian Houser
vs
WSN
Cade Cavalli
Win Probability
| Source | SFG | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| Simulation only | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| Elo ratings | 38.4% | 61.6% |
| Market (implied) | 51.2% | 48.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SFG avg runs
4.8
WSN avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SFG wins, Positive = WSN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFG | 5.2% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| WSN | 5.5% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Rafael Devers
- Casey Schmitt
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Heliot Ramos
- Patrick Bailey
- Drew Gilbert
WSN
- James Wood
- Luis García Jr.
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- CJ Abrams
- Jacob Young
- Jorbit Vivas
- Drew Millas
- Nasim Nuñez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 0.95
K: 0.95
Elo Ratings
SFG: 1459
WSN: 1517
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SFG | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -116 | -102 |
| Bovada | -113 | -107 |
| BetMGM | -118 | -102 |
| DraftKings | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -115 | -105 |
Model Analysis
WSN is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Cade Cavalli toes the rubber against Adrian Houser.