TEX
52%
@
April 18, 2026
SEA
48%
ML
TEX ML (+125) — 52% win, +6.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
TEX
Nathan Eovaldi
vs
SEA
George Kirby
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Simulation only | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Elo ratings | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| Market (implied) | 43.0% | 57.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
4.0
SEA avg runs
4.0
Avg total
8.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = SEA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 7.6% | 11.7% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 13.7% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| SEA | 7.5% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 15.2% | 13.7% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Corey Seager
- Wyatt Langford
- Jake Burger
- Evan Carter
- Joc Pederson
- Josh Jung
- Josh Smith
- Danny Jansen
SEA
- J.P. Crawford
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Luke Raley
- Dominic Canzone
- Leo Rivas
- Cole Young
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.83
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1554
SEA: 1475
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +122 | -144 |
| Bovada | +123 | -147 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |
Model Analysis
TEX is getting plus-money at +125 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Nathan Eovaldi keeps TEX competitive on the mound against George Kirby. Pitcher's park suppresses the long ball.