BAL
45%
@
April 19, 2026
CLE
55%
Pitching Matchup
BAL
Trevor Rogers
vs
CLE
Joseph Cantillo
Win Probability
| Source | BAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| Simulation only | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| Elo ratings | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Market (implied) | 48.0% | 52.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BAL avg runs
4.3
CLE avg runs
3.7
Avg total
8.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BAL wins, Positive = CLE wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 6.8% | 11.2% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| CLE | 9.3% | 13.2% | 14.5% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BAL
- Taylor Ward
- Gunnar Henderson
- Pete Alonso
- Johnathan Rodríguez
- Jeremiah Jackson
- Coby Mayo
- Leody Taveras
- Sam Huff
- Blaze Alexander
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Angel Martínez
- José Ramírez
- Rhys Hoskins
- David Fry
- Chase DeLauter
- Juan Brito
- Austin Hedges
- Brayan Rocchio
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.88
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
45°F
Wind: 12 mph cross
Elo Ratings
BAL: 1487
CLE: 1545
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +100 | -118 |
| Bovada | -102 | -118 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -118 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |