CWS
34%
@
April 19, 2026
Athletics
66%
ML
Athletics ML (-155) — 66% win, +6.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
CWS
Noah Schultz
vs
Athletics
Jeffrey Springs
Win Probability
| Source | CWS | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| Simulation only | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| Elo ratings | 27.7% | 72.3% |
| Market (implied) | 41.2% | 58.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CWS avg runs
4.3
Athletics avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CWS wins, Positive = Athletics wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 6.7% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Athletics | 4.6% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CWS
- Miguel Vargas
- Chase Meidroth
- Munetaka Murakami
- Everson Pereira
- Edgar Quero
- Colson Montgomery
- Andrew Benintendi
- Derek Hill
- Sam Antonacci
Athletics
- Jacob Wilson
- Nick Kurtz
- Brent Rooker
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Max Muncy
- Austin Wynns
- Zack Gelof
- Darell Hernaiz
- Denzel Clarke
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Elo Ratings
CWS: 1385
Athletics: 1528
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CWS | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +132 | -156 |
| Bovada | +130 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -155 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |
Model Analysis
Athletics is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Jeffrey Springs is a big pitching edge over Noah Schultz. Athletics holds a commanding 143-point Elo edge.