NYM
34%
@
April 19, 2026
CHC
66%
ML
CHC ML (-125) — 66% win, +10.6% edge
Pitching Matchup
NYM
David Peterson
vs
CHC
Javier Assad
Win Probability
| Source | NYM | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 33.8% | 66.2% |
| Simulation only | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| Elo ratings | 23.8% | 76.2% |
| Market (implied) | 45.6% | 54.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYM avg runs
4.0
CHC avg runs
4.3
Avg total
8.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYM wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 7.6% | 11.8% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| CHC | 6.1% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 14.2% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYM
- Carson Benge
- Bo Bichette
- Francisco Lindor
- Luis Robert Jr.
- MJ Melendez
- Mark Vientos
- Brett Baty
- Marcus Semien
- Luis Torrens
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Alex Bregman
- Seiya Suzuki
- Ian Happ
- Michael Busch
- Carson Kelly
- Dansby Swanson
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Matt Shaw
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
40°F
Wind: 5 mph out
Elo Ratings
NYM: 1367
CHC: 1546
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYM | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +109 | -131 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |
Model Analysis
CHC is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Javier Assad toes the rubber against David Peterson. Cold temps suppress the bats.