SDP
55%
@
April 19, 2026
LAA
45%
Pitching Matchup
SDP
Mike King
vs
LAA
Reid Detmers
Win Probability
| Source | SDP | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| Simulation only | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| Elo ratings | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| Market (implied) | 51.7% | 48.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SDP avg runs
5.1
LAA avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SDP wins, Positive = LAA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDP | 4.6% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% |
| LAA | 5.5% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SDP
- Ramón Laureano
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Jackson Merrill
- Manny Machado
- Xander Bogaerts
- Nick Castellanos
- Ty France
- Luis Campusano
- Jake Cronenworth
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Adam Frazier
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.06
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
72°F
Wind: 10 mph in
Elo Ratings
SDP: 1587
LAA: 1510
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SDP | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -118 | +100 |
| Bovada | -116 | -104 |
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings | -118 | -102 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |