SFG
48%
@
April 19, 2026
WSN
52%
ML
WSN ML (+130) — 52% win, +6.9% edge
Pitching Matchup
SFG
Robbie Ray
vs
WSN
Miles Mikolas
Win Probability
| Source | SFG | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| Simulation only | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| Elo ratings | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| Market (implied) | 57.6% | 42.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SFG avg runs
4.9
WSN avg runs
4.3
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SFG wins, Positive = WSN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFG | 5.4% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| WSN | 6.4% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 14.4% | 13.7% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Rafael Devers
- Casey Schmitt
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Heliot Ramos
- Drew Gilbert
- Patrick Bailey
WSN
- James Wood
- Curtis Mead
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- Joey Wiemer
- CJ Abrams
- Jacob Young
- Nasim Nuñez
- Keibert Ruiz
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 0.95
K: 0.95
Elo Ratings
SFG: 1483
WSN: 1493
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SFG | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -154 | +130 |
| Bovada | -154 | +129 |
| BetMGM | -145 | +120 |
| DraftKings | -156 | +129 |
| Caesars | -155 | +130 |
Model Analysis
WSN is getting plus-money at +130 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Miles Mikolas keeps WSN competitive on the mound against Robbie Ray.