TEX
50%
@
April 19, 2026
SEA
50%
Pitching Matchup
TEX
MacKenzie Gore
vs
SEA
Bryan Woo
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| Simulation only | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Elo ratings | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| Market (implied) | 42.8% | 57.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
4.0
SEA avg runs
3.7
Avg total
7.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = SEA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 8.3% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 14.9% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| SEA | 8.8% | 12.8% | 16.2% | 15.3% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Corey Seager
- Wyatt Langford
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Josh Jung
- Evan Carter
- Josh Smith
- Danny Jansen
SEA
- Rob Refsnyder
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Randy Arozarena
- Josh Naylor
- Mitch Garver
- J.P. Crawford
- Leo Rivas
- Cole Young
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.83
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1531
SEA: 1498
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +126 | -148 |
| Bovada | +125 | -149 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |