TOR
38%
@
April 19, 2026
ARI
62%
ML
ARI ML (-106) — 62% win, +8.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
TOR
Kevin Gausman
vs
ARI
Ryne Nelson
Win Probability
| Source | TOR | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| Simulation only | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Elo ratings | 28.1% | 71.9% |
| Market (implied) | 50.3% | 49.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TOR avg runs
4.5
ARI avg runs
4.3
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TOR wins, Positive = ARI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 5.9% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| ARI | 6.0% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TOR
- Davis Schneider
- Nathan Lukes
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Jesús Sánchez
- Lenyn Sosa
- Andrés Giménez
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Ernie Clement
- Brandon Valenzuela
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
- Adrian Del Castillo
- Jose Fernandez
- Nolan Arenado
- Ildemaro Vargas
- Alek Thomas
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.8
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
TOR: 1454
ARI: 1594
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TOR | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -110 | -106 |
| Bovada | -109 | -111 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -112 | -108 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |
Model Analysis
ARI is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Ryne Nelson toes the rubber against Kevin Gausman. Pitcher's park suppresses the long ball.