ATL
60%
@
April 19, 2026
PHI
40%
ML
ATL ML (+104) — 60% win, +8.5% edge
Pitching Matchup
ATL
Grant Holmes
vs
PHI
Andrew Painter
Win Probability
| Source | ATL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| Simulation only | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| Elo ratings | 70.9% | 29.1% |
| Market (implied) | 47.3% | 52.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ATL avg runs
5.4
PHI avg runs
5.0
Avg total
10.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ATL wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 3.7% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% |
| PHI | 4.1% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Ozzie Albies
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Dominic Smith
- Mauricio Dubón
- Michael Harris II
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Adolis García
- Brandon Marsh
- Alec Bohm
- Bryson Stott
- Rafael Marchán
- Justin Crawford
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.15
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
49°F
Wind: 9 mph out
Elo Ratings
ATL: 1610
PHI: 1431
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ATL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +104 | -122 |
| Bovada | +102 | -122 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |
Model Analysis
ATL is getting plus-money at +104 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Grant Holmes keeps ATL competitive on the mound against Andrew Painter. The sim projects ATL to plate 5.4 runs — expect some fireworks.