CIN
47%
@
April 19, 2026
MIN
53%
Pitching Matchup
CIN
Brady Singer
vs
MIN
Bailey Ober
Win Probability
| Source | CIN | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| Simulation only | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| Elo ratings | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Market (implied) | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CIN avg runs
4.4
MIN avg runs
4.5
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CIN wins, Positive = MIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 6.8% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| MIN | 5.4% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Rece Hinds
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
- P.J. Higgins
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Trevor Larnach
- Luke Keaschall
- Josh Bell
- Matt Wallner
- Victor Caratini
- Kody Clemens
- Brooks Lee
- Tristan Gray
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.07
HR: 0.95
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
46°F
Wind: 11 mph in
Elo Ratings
CIN: 1518
MIN: 1489
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CIN | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +108 | -126 |
| Bovada | +104 | -124 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -126 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |