KCR
35%
@
April 19, 2026
NYY
65%
ML
NYY ML (-148) — 65% win, +6.3% edge
Pitching Matchup
KCR
Cole Ragans
vs
NYY
Ryan Weathers
Win Probability
| Source | KCR | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| Simulation only | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| Elo ratings | 26.1% | 73.9% |
| Market (implied) | 41.6% | 58.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
KCR avg runs
4.7
NYY avg runs
4.9
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = KCR wins, Positive = NYY wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCR | 5.1% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| NYY | 4.5% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Lane Thomas
- Salvador Perez
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Starling Marte
- Jonathan India
- 553869
- Isaac Collins
NYY
- Amed Rosario
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Ben Rice
- Randal Grichuk
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- José Caballero
- Austin Wells
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.11
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
46°F
Wind: 8 mph out
Elo Ratings
KCR: 1382
NYY: 1538
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | KCR | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +126 | -148 |
| Bovada | +129 | -154 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |
Model Analysis
NYY is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Ryan Weathers toes the rubber against Cole Ragans. Cold temps suppress the bats.