STL
59%
@
April 19, 2026
HOU
41%
ML
STL ML (+125) — 59% win, +9.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
STL
Matthew Liberatore
vs
HOU
Mike Burrows
Win Probability
| Source | STL | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| Simulation only | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Elo ratings | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| Market (implied) | 42.9% | 57.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
STL avg runs
4.4
HOU avg runs
4.4
Avg total
8.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = STL wins, Positive = HOU wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 6.8% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| HOU | 5.8% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Jordan Walker
- Nolan Gorman
- Masyn Winn
- Nathan Church
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
HOU
- Jose Altuve
- Yordan Alvarez
- Carlos Correa
- Christian Walker
- Isaac Paredes
- Cam Smith
- Yainer Diaz
- Brice Matthews
- Nick Allen
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
STL: 1568
HOU: 1371
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | STL | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +124 | -146 |
| Bovada | +125 | -149 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |
Model Analysis
STL is getting plus-money at +125 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Matthew Liberatore keeps STL competitive on the mound against Mike Burrows. STL holds a commanding 197-point Elo edge.