TBR
51%
@
April 19, 2026
PIT
49%
Pitching Matchup
TBR
Shane McClanahan
vs
PIT
Mitch Keller
Win Probability
| Source | TBR | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| Simulation only | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Elo ratings | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| Market (implied) | 48.6% | 51.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TBR avg runs
4.6
PIT avg runs
4.3
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TBR wins, Positive = PIT wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | 6.8% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| PIT | 6.0% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 14.5% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TBR
- Chandler Simpson
- Junior Caminero
- Jonathan Aranda
- Yandy Díaz
- Jake Fraley
- Cedric Mullins
- Richie Palacios
- Nick Fortes
- Taylor Walls
PIT
- Jake Mangum
- Nick Gonzales
- Oneil Cruz
- Bryan Reynolds
- Marcell Ozuna
- Nick Yorke
- Brandon Lowe
- Konnor Griffin
- Joey Bart
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.78
BB: 1.0
K: 0.92
Weather
Forecast
50°F
Wind: 10 mph cross
Elo Ratings
TBR: 1541
PIT: 1483
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TBR | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -104 | -112 |
| Bovada | -106 | -114 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -105 | -115 |