ATL
57%
@
April 20, 2026
WSN
43%
Pitching Matchup
ATL
Bryce Elder
vs
WSN
Jake Irvin
Win Probability
| Source | ATL | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| Simulation only | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Elo ratings | 62.2% | 37.8% |
| Market (implied) | 58.6% | 41.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ATL avg runs
5.2
WSN avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ATL wins, Positive = WSN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 3.9% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| WSN | 4.9% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Ozzie Albies
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Dominic Smith
- Mauricio Dubón
- Michael Harris II
WSN
- James Wood
- Luis García Jr.
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- Jacob Young
- José Tena
- Jorbit Vivas
- Drew Millas
- Keibert Ruiz
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 0.95
K: 0.95
Elo Ratings
ATL: 1621
WSN: 1511
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ATL | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -162 | +136 |
| Bovada | -161 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -150 | +125 |
| DraftKings | -163 | +135 |
| Caesars | -160 | +135 |