DET
52%
@
April 20, 2026
BOS
48%
Pitching Matchup
DET
Jack Flaherty
vs
BOS
Sonny Gray
Win Probability
| Source | DET | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| Simulation only | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| Elo ratings | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| Market (implied) | 44.4% | 55.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
DET avg runs
4.8
BOS avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = DET wins, Positive = BOS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 5.1% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| BOS | 4.7% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
Lineups CONFIRMED
DET
- Kevin McGonigle
- Gleyber Torres
- Colt Keith
- Riley Greene
- Dillon Dingler
- Kerry Carpenter
- Matt Vierling
- Hao-Yu Lee
- Jake Rogers
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Masataka Yoshida
- Trevor Story
- Jarren Duran
- Caleb Durbin
- Marcelo Mayer
- Carlos Narváez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.81
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
41°F
Wind: 9 mph out
Elo Ratings
DET: 1576
BOS: 1493
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | DET | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -136 |
| Bovada | +111 | -133 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |