LAD
61%
@
April 20, 2026
COL
39%
RL
COL +1.5 (+149) — 56% win, +12.7% edge
Pitching Matchup
LAD
Justin Wrobleski
vs
COL
Jose Quintana
Win Probability
| Source | LAD | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| Simulation only | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| Elo ratings | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| Market (implied) | 69.7% | 30.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAD avg runs
6.3
COL avg runs
5.5
Avg total
11.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAD wins, Positive = COL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 2.5% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% |
| COL | 3.3% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Will Smith
- Teoscar Hernández
- Andy Pages
- Max Muncy
- Santiago Espinal
- Miguel Rojas
- Alex Freeland
COL
- Tyler Freeman
- Brenton Doyle
- Hunter Goodman
- Ezequiel Tovar
- Jordan Beck
- Willi Castro
- Troy Johnston
- Kyle Karros
- Edouard Julien
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.3
HR: 1.01
BB: 1.0
K: 0.89
Weather
Forecast
79°F
Wind: 6 mph out
Elo Ratings
LAD: 1596
COL: 1422
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAD | COL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -255 | +210 |
| Bovada | -265 | +215 |
| BetMGM | -275 | +220 |
| DraftKings | -271 | +218 |
| Caesars | -267 | +215 |
Model Analysis
COL is getting +1.5 at +149. The sim gives them a 56% chance of covering — 12.7% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.