PHI
38%
@
April 20, 2026
CHC
62%
ML
CHC ML (-102) — 62% win, +8.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
PHI
Aaron Nola
vs
CHC
Colin Rea
Win Probability
| Source | PHI | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| Simulation only | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| Elo ratings | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| Market (implied) | 51.1% | 48.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PHI avg runs
4.6
CHC avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PHI wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 6.4% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| CHC | 6.0% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Adolis García
- Brandon Marsh
- Alec Bohm
- Bryson Stott
- Rafael Marchán
- Justin Crawford
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Seiya Suzuki
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Carson Kelly
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Dansby Swanson
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.88
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
48°F
Wind: 10 mph cross
Elo Ratings
PHI: 1420
CHC: 1555
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PHI | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -116 | -102 |
| Bovada | -112 | -108 |
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings | -112 | -108 |
| Caesars | -115 | -105 |
Model Analysis
CHC is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Colin Rea toes the rubber against Aaron Nola. Cold temps suppress the bats.