STL
51%
@
April 20, 2026
MIA
49%
Pitching Matchup
STL
Michael McGreevy
vs
MIA
Max Meyer
Win Probability
| Source | STL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Simulation only | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| Elo ratings | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Market (implied) | 45.3% | 54.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
STL avg runs
4.2
MIA avg runs
4.7
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = STL wins, Positive = MIA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 7.5% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| MIA | 5.1% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Jordan Walker
- Nolan Gorman
- Masyn Winn
- Nathan Church
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
MIA
- Jakob Marsee
- Xavier Edwards
- Otto Lopez
- Kyle Stowers
- Agustín Ramírez
- Liam Hicks
- Connor Norby
- Owen Caissie
- Graham Pauley
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
STL: 1578
MIA: 1480
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | STL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +114 | -134 |
| Bovada | +108 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |