TOR
46%
@
April 20, 2026
LAA
54%
Pitching Matchup
TOR
Dylan Cease
vs
LAA
Reid Detmers
Win Probability
| Source | TOR | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| Simulation only | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| Elo ratings | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| Market (implied) | 53.3% | 46.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TOR avg runs
4.6
LAA avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TOR wins, Positive = LAA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 5.6% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| LAA | 5.9% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TOR
- Davis Schneider
- Ernie Clement
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Eloy Jiménez
- Lenyn Sosa
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Myles Straw
- Brandon Valenzuela
- Andrés Giménez
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Adam Frazier
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.06
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
71°F
Wind: 10 mph in
Elo Ratings
TOR: 1482
LAA: 1494
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TOR | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -124 | +106 |
| Bovada | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -130 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -126 | +104 |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 |