CIN
47%
@
April 20, 2026
TBR
53%
Pitching Matchup
CIN
Rhett Lowder
vs
TBR
Jesse Scholtens
Win Probability
| Source | CIN | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| Simulation only | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| Elo ratings | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| Market (implied) | 46.9% | 53.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CIN avg runs
4.3
TBR avg runs
4.4
Avg total
8.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CIN wins, Positive = TBR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 6.7% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| TBR | 5.6% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Tyler Stephenson
- Rece Hinds
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
TBR
- Chandler Simpson
- Junior Caminero
- Jonathan Aranda
- Yandy Díaz
- Jake Fraley
- Cedric Mullins
- Richie Palacios
- Nick Fortes
- Taylor Walls
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.08
Elo Ratings
CIN: 1537
TBR: 1520
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CIN | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +102 | -120 |
| Bovada | +108 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +102 | -122 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |