HOU
36%
@
April 20, 2026
CLE
64%
ML
CLE ML (-115) — 64% win, +11.7% edge
Pitching Matchup
HOU
Spencer Arrighetti
vs
CLE
Slade Cecconi
Win Probability
| Source | HOU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| Simulation only | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Elo ratings | 21.7% | 78.3% |
| Market (implied) | 48.6% | 51.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
HOU avg runs
4.2
CLE avg runs
3.9
Avg total
8.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = HOU wins, Positive = CLE wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 7.0% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 14.3% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| CLE | 7.8% | 11.8% | 14.8% | 15.1% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
HOU
- Carlos Correa
- Yordan Alvarez
- Jose Altuve
- Christian Walker
- Isaac Paredes
- Taylor Trammell
- Cam Smith
- Yainer Diaz
- Shay Whitcomb
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- George Valera
- Angel Martínez
- Daniel Schneemann
- Bo Naylor
- Brayan Rocchio
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
39°F
Wind: 3 mph out
Elo Ratings
HOU: 1360
CLE: 1560
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | HOU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 |
| Bovada | -103 | -117 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -105 | -115 |
Model Analysis
CLE is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Slade Cecconi toes the rubber against Spencer Arrighetti. Cold temps suppress the bats.