BAL
56%
@
April 21, 2026
KCR
44%
ML
BAL ML (+116) — 56% win, +7.5% edge
Pitching Matchup
BAL
Shane Baz
vs
KCR
Kris Bubic
Win Probability
| Source | BAL | KCR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| Simulation only | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| Elo ratings | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| Market (implied) | 45.0% | 55.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BAL avg runs
5.0
KCR avg runs
4.9
Avg total
10.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BAL wins, Positive = KCR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 4.2% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% |
| KCR | 4.7% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BAL
- Taylor Ward
- Gunnar Henderson
- Pete Alonso
- Johnathan Rodríguez
- Jeremiah Jackson
- Weston Wilson
- Coby Mayo
- Sam Huff
- Blaze Alexander
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Carter Jensen
- Michael Massey
- Jac Caglianone
- Isaac Collins
- Kyle Isbel
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.1
K: 0.93
Elo Ratings
BAL: 1488
KCR: 1356
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BAL | KCR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -134 |
| Bovada | +108 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |
Model Analysis
BAL is getting plus-money at +116 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Shane Baz keeps BAL competitive on the mound against Kris Bubic. The sim projects BAL to plate 5.0 runs — expect some fireworks.