HOU
38%
@
April 21, 2026
CLE
62%
Pitching Matchup
HOU
Ryan Weiss
vs
CLE
Parker Messick
Win Probability
| Source | HOU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Simulation only | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Elo ratings | 28.2% | 71.8% |
| Market (implied) | 43.2% | 56.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
HOU avg runs
4.4
CLE avg runs
4.2
Avg total
8.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = HOU wins, Positive = CLE wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 6.4% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| CLE | 6.8% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
HOU
- Carlos Correa
- Yordan Alvarez
- Jose Altuve
- Christian Walker
- Isaac Paredes
- Cam Smith
- Yainer Diaz
- Shay Whitcomb
- Brice Matthews
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- George Valera
- Rhys Hoskins
- Daniel Schneemann
- Bo Naylor
- Brayan Rocchio
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
68°F
Wind: 6 mph in
Elo Ratings
HOU: 1391
CLE: 1529
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | HOU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 |
| Bovada | +125 | -149 |
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |