NYY
50%
@
April 21, 2026
BOS
50%
Pitching Matchup
NYY
Luis Gil
vs
BOS
Connelly Early
Win Probability
| Source | NYY | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| Simulation only | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Elo ratings | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| Market (implied) | 50.3% | 49.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYY avg runs
5.1
BOS avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYY wins, Positive = BOS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 5.1% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% |
| BOS | 4.9% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYY
- Ben Rice
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Trent Grisham
- Amed Rosario
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- José Caballero
- Austin Wells
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Trevor Story
- Jarren Duran
- Ceddanne Rafaela
- Marcelo Mayer
- Caleb Durbin
- Connor Wong
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.81
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
42°F
Wind: 9 mph in
Elo Ratings
NYY: 1549
BOS: 1515
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYY | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -108 | -108 |
| Bovada | -109 | -111 |
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings | -112 | -108 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |