PHI
37%
@
April 21, 2026
CHC
63%
ML
CHC ML (-118) — 63% win, +9.5% edge
Pitching Matchup
PHI
Jesus Luzardo
vs
CHC
Shota Imanaga
Win Probability
| Source | PHI | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| Simulation only | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| Elo ratings | 26.0% | 74.0% |
| Market (implied) | 47.4% | 52.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PHI avg runs
4.6
CHC avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PHI wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 5.9% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| CHC | 6.1% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 14.4% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Adolis García
- J.T. Realmuto
- Alec Bohm
- Felix Reyes
- Edmundo Sosa
- Brandon Marsh
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Alex Bregman
- Seiya Suzuki
- Ian Happ
- Carson Kelly
- Michael Busch
- Dansby Swanson
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Matt Shaw
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.91
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
62°F
Wind: 2 mph in
Elo Ratings
PHI: 1408
CHC: 1566
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PHI | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +100 | -118 |
| Bovada | -102 | -118 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |
Model Analysis
CHC is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Shota Imanaga toes the rubber against Jesus Luzardo. CHC holds a commanding 158-point Elo edge.