PIT
47%
@
April 21, 2026
TEX
53%
Pitching Matchup
PIT
Carmen Mlodzinski
vs
TEX
Kumar Rocker
Win Probability
| Source | PIT | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| Simulation only | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| Elo ratings | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| Market (implied) | 48.0% | 52.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PIT avg runs
4.9
TEX avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PIT wins, Positive = TEX wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 4.9% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% |
| TEX | 5.2% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Marcell Ozuna
- Nick Gonzales
- Spencer Horwitz
- Konnor Griffin
- Henry Davis
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Corey Seager
- Wyatt Langford
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Josh Jung
- Evan Carter
- Josh Smith
- Danny Jansen
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.07
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
PIT: 1504
TEX: 1511
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PIT | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +100 | -118 |
| Bovada | +100 | -120 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |