STL
48%
@
April 21, 2026
MIA
52%
Pitching Matchup
STL
Dustin May
vs
MIA
Chris Paddack
Win Probability
| Source | STL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Simulation only | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| Elo ratings | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| Market (implied) | 48.6% | 51.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
STL avg runs
4.3
MIA avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = STL wins, Positive = MIA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 7.3% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| MIA | 4.7% | 8.7% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Jordan Walker
- Nolan Gorman
- Masyn Winn
- Nathan Church
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
MIA
- Jakob Marsee
- Kyle Stowers
- Otto Lopez
- Xavier Edwards
- Liam Hicks
- Agustín Ramírez
- Owen Caissie
- Graham Pauley
- Connor Norby
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
STL: 1555
MIA: 1503
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | STL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 |
| Bovada | -108 | -112 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |