TOR
52%
@
April 21, 2026
LAA
48%
Pitching Matchup
TOR
Patrick Corbin
vs
LAA
Jack Kochanowicz
Win Probability
| Source | TOR | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| Simulation only | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Elo ratings | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| Market (implied) | 48.8% | 51.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TOR avg runs
4.7
LAA avg runs
4.0
Avg total
8.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TOR wins, Positive = LAA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 5.1% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| LAA | 7.2% | 11.8% | 14.5% | 14.8% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TOR
- Nathan Lukes
- Daulton Varsho
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Jesús Sánchez
- Eloy Jiménez
- Andrés Giménez
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Ernie Clement
- Brandon Valenzuela
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Jo Adell
- Jorge Soler
- Oswald Peraza
- Vaughn Grissom
- Nolan Schanuel
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Bryce Teodosio
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.05
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
68°F
Wind: 13 mph in
Elo Ratings
TOR: 1504
LAA: 1472
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TOR | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -106 | -110 |
| Bovada | -107 | -113 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -105 | -115 |