Athletics
50%
@
April 21, 2026
SEA
50%
ML
Athletics ML (+150) — 50% win, +7.9% edge
Pitching Matchup
Athletics
Jacob Lopez
vs
SEA
Luis Castillo
Win Probability
| Source | Athletics | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Simulation only | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Elo ratings | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Market (implied) | 38.8% | 61.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Athletics avg runs
4.1
SEA avg runs
3.8
Avg total
7.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = Athletics wins, Positive = SEA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 7.3% | 11.9% | 13.7% | 14.9% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| SEA | 8.5% | 12.8% | 15.0% | 15.8% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
Athletics
- Jeff McNeil
- Shea Langeliers
- Nick Kurtz
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Jacob Wilson
- Carlos Cortes
- Max Muncy
- Lawrence Butler
- Denzel Clarke
SEA
- Rob Refsnyder
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Mitch Garver
- J.P. Crawford
- Leo Rivas
- Cole Young
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.83
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
Athletics: 1521
SEA: 1496
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | Athletics | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +144 | -172 |
| Bovada | +141 | -170 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +141 | -171 |
| Caesars | +143 | -170 |
Model Analysis
The market has Athletics as a +150 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Jacob Lopez keeps Athletics competitive on the mound against Luis Castillo. Pitcher's park suppresses the long ball.