ATL
57%
@
April 21, 2026
WSN
43%
Pitching Matchup
ATL
Reynaldo López
vs
WSN
Foster Griffin
Win Probability
| Source | ATL | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| Simulation only | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| Elo ratings | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| Market (implied) | 55.9% | 44.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ATL avg runs
4.7
WSN avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ATL wins, Positive = WSN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 5.2% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| WSN | 4.9% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Ozzie Albies
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Mauricio Dubón
- Eli White
- Jonah Heim
- Jorge Mateo
WSN
- James Wood
- Luis García Jr.
- Brady House
- CJ Abrams
- Daylen Lile
- Jacob Young
- Nasim Nuñez
- Drew Millas
- Keibert Ruiz
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 0.95
K: 0.95
Elo Ratings
ATL: 1636
WSN: 1496
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ATL | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -138 | +118 |
| Bovada | -142 | +119 |
| BetMGM | -140 | +115 |
| DraftKings | -143 | +119 |
| Caesars | -140 | +118 |