CIN
48%
@
April 21, 2026
TBR
52%
Pitching Matchup
CIN
Chase Burns
vs
TBR
Steven Matz
Win Probability
| Source | CIN | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Simulation only | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| Elo ratings | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| Market (implied) | 50.1% | 49.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CIN avg runs
4.1
TBR avg runs
4.5
Avg total
8.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CIN wins, Positive = TBR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 7.3% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| TBR | 5.4% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CIN
- Dane Myers
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Rece Hinds
- Spencer Steer
- Tyler Stephenson
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
TBR
- Chandler Simpson
- Junior Caminero
- Jonathan Aranda
- Yandy Díaz
- Jake Fraley
- Cedric Mullins
- Richie Palacios
- Hunter Feduccia
- Taylor Walls
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.08
Elo Ratings
CIN: 1557
TBR: 1500
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CIN | TBR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -108 | -108 |
| Bovada | -113 | -107 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -112 | -108 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |