CWS
34%
@
April 21, 2026
ARI
66%
ML
ARI ML (-146) — 66% win, +6.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
CWS
Sean Burke
vs
ARI
Merrill Kelly
Win Probability
| Source | CWS | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| Simulation only | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| Elo ratings | 26.6% | 73.4% |
| Market (implied) | 41.5% | 58.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CWS avg runs
4.1
ARI avg runs
4.4
Avg total
8.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CWS wins, Positive = ARI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 8.4% | 12.2% | 13.6% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| ARI | 5.8% | 10.1% | 13.3% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CWS
- Andrew Benintendi
- Munetaka Murakami
- Miguel Vargas
- Colson Montgomery
- Everson Pereira
- Sam Antonacci
- Edgar Quero
- Chase Meidroth
- Luisangel Acuña
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
- Adrian Del Castillo
- Jose Fernandez
- Nolan Arenado
- Ildemaro Vargas
- Alek Thomas
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.8
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CWS: 1413
ARI: 1566
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CWS | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +124 | -146 |
| Bovada | +137 | -163 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |
Model Analysis
ARI is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Merrill Kelly toes the rubber against Sean Burke. Pitcher's park suppresses the long ball.