LAD
59%
@
April 21, 2026
SFG
41%
Pitching Matchup
LAD
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
vs
SFG
Landen Roupp
Win Probability
| Source | LAD | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| Simulation only | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| Elo ratings | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| Market (implied) | 62.4% | 37.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAD avg runs
5.2
SFG avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAD wins, Positive = SFG wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 4.4% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
| SFG | 6.0% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Will Smith
- Max Muncy
- Teoscar Hernández
- Andy Pages
- Ryan Ward
- Hyeseong Kim
- Alex Freeland
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Rafael Devers
- Casey Schmitt
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Heliot Ramos
- Drew Gilbert
- Patrick Bailey
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.91
HR: 0.82
BB: 0.86
K: 0.9
Elo Ratings
LAD: 1608
SFG: 1465
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAD | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -180 | +152 |
| Bovada | -188 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -190 | +155 |
| DraftKings | -186 | +153 |
| Caesars | -190 | +158 |