MIN
56%
@
April 21, 2026
NYM
44%
ML
MIN ML (+158) — 56% win, +10.5% edge
Pitching Matchup
MIN
Simeon Woods Richardson
vs
NYM
Nolan McLean
Win Probability
| Source | MIN | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| Simulation only | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| Elo ratings | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| Market (implied) | 37.5% | 62.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIN avg runs
4.6
NYM avg runs
4.2
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIN wins, Positive = NYM wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 5.8% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
| NYM | 6.2% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIN
- Byron Buxton
- Trevor Larnach
- Josh Bell
- Ryan Jeffers
- Matt Wallner
- Luke Keaschall
- Victor Caratini
- Brooks Lee
- Tristan Gray
NYM
- Carson Benge
- Bo Bichette
- Francisco Lindor
- Luis Robert Jr.
- MJ Melendez
- Francisco Alvarez
- Mark Vientos
- Brett Baty
- Marcus Semien
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.03
BB: 1.06
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
45°F
Wind: 11 mph in
Elo Ratings
MIN: 1470
NYM: 1358
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIN | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +154 | -184 |
| Bovada | +151 | -183 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +153 | -186 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Model Analysis
The market has MIN as a +158 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Simeon Woods Richardson keeps MIN competitive on the mound against Nolan McLean. Cold temps suppress the bats.