Athletics
51%
@
April 22, 2026
SEA
49%
ML
Athletics ML (+164) — 51% win, +9.1% edge
Pitching Matchup
Athletics
Aaron Civale
vs
SEA
Logan Gilbert
Win Probability
| Source | Athletics | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.7% | 49.2% |
| Simulation only | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| Elo ratings | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| Market (implied) | 36.6% | 63.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Athletics avg runs
4.1
SEA avg runs
4.2
Avg total
8.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = Athletics wins, Positive = SEA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 7.5% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 14.8% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| SEA | 7.1% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 15.1% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
Athletics
- Jeff McNeil
- Shea Langeliers
- Nick Kurtz
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Jacob Wilson
- Carlos Cortes
- Max Muncy
- Lawrence Butler
- Zack Gelof
SEA
- Brendan Donovan
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Luke Raley
- Dominic Canzone
- Cole Young
- Leo Rivas
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.83
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
Athletics: 1541
SEA: 1477
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | Athletics | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +164 | -196 |
| Bovada | +156 | -190 |
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -193 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Model Analysis
The market has Athletics as a +164 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Aaron Civale keeps Athletics competitive on the mound against Logan Gilbert. Pitcher's park suppresses the long ball.