CWS
37%
@
April 22, 2026
ARI
63%
Pitching Matchup
CWS
Anthony Kay
vs
ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez
Win Probability
| Source | CWS | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| Simulation only | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| Elo ratings | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| Market (implied) | 41.9% | 58.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CWS avg runs
4.0
ARI avg runs
4.2
Avg total
8.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CWS wins, Positive = ARI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 8.4% | 11.6% | 14.5% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| ARI | 6.8% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Miguel Vargas
- Munetaka Murakami
- Everson Pereira
- Edgar Quero
- Colson Montgomery
- Tanner Murray
- Derek Hill
- Luisangel Acuña
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
- Jose Fernandez
- Nolan Arenado
- James McCann
- Tim Tawa
- Jorge Barrosa
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.8
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CWS: 1428
ARI: 1551
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CWS | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +128 | -152 |
| Bovada | +130 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -155 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |