HOU
37%
@
April 22, 2026
CLE
63%
ML
CLE ML (-138) — 63% win, +6.1% edge
Pitching Matchup
HOU
Peter Lambert
vs
CLE
Tanner Bibee
Win Probability
| Source | HOU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| Simulation only | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| Elo ratings | 25.7% | 74.3% |
| Market (implied) | 43.9% | 56.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
HOU avg runs
4.3
CLE avg runs
4.1
Avg total
8.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = HOU wins, Positive = CLE wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 6.4% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| CLE | 7.0% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 15.7% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
HOU
- Carlos Correa
- Yordan Alvarez
- Jose Altuve
- Christian Walker
- Isaac Paredes
- Dustin Harris
- Cam Smith
- Braden Shewmake
- Christian Vázquez
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- George Valera
- Daniel Schneemann
- Angel Martínez
- Bo Naylor
- Brayan Rocchio
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
68°F
Wind: 6 mph out
Elo Ratings
HOU: 1380
CLE: 1540
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | HOU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +118 | -138 |
| Bovada | +119 | -142 |
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |
Model Analysis
CLE is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Tanner Bibee toes the rubber against Peter Lambert. CLE holds a commanding 160-point Elo edge.